Israel and U.S., ‘Making a Killing’ in Hostage Power Plays?
At the 11th Hour, the Israel Defense Force announced finding the body of Sinwar. On May 1, 2011, US DEVGRU (SEAL Team Six) fired at and killed Osama Bin Laden. People of the Book or Man of the Cloth will remind you. You can Kill a Man, or thousands, but not an IDEA.
Former CIA director David Petraeus, you’ve got it ass backwards. You say “that Sinwar’s death was “bigger” than Osama Bin Laden’s in 2012 – “both hugely symbolic… but also hugely operational.”
Petraeus, IDF air missiles and tanks have fired haphazardly onto Gaza and Lebanon for over a year resulting in the death of tens of thousands innocent adults and children.
September 11, 2001 ‘OPERATIONAL’ and PRECISE attack caused the death of close to 3,000 innocent people. David, get it right. Osama Bin Laden was killed in 2011. NOT 2012.
Operation guided by Central Intelligence Agency and DEVGRU was planned with PRECISION to take out Bin Laden, the target. IDF soldiers ‘accidentally came across’ Sinwar in a ‘routine patrol.’
DEVGRU was sent into target’s ‘safe house.’ IDF sent into a bombed building a drone. A Member of DEVGRU shot with close PRECISION their target. IDFs tanks fired from a distance. Reportedly, not clear who fired the shot, when, and weapon used.
I am reminded of a 1973 interview with Yasir Arafat by Oriana Fallaci, Italian journalist.
Fallaci: Are you capable of respecting your enemies?
Arafat: “As fighters, and even as strategists…sometimes, yes.
Fallaci: “Part of the game of war. They’ve also won because they’re brave soldiers.”
Arafat: “No! No! No! No they’re not! In hand-to-hand combat, face to face, they’re not even soldiers.”
[And what of their victories?]
Arafat: “It’s always the same story with the Israelis. They’re good at attacking with planes because they know we have no planes, with tanks because they know we have no tanks…”
Arafat: “If you’re so anxious to give a homeland to the Jews, give them yours – You have a lot of land in Europe, in America…we won’t give it up to pay your debts.”
Power Play
If ‘all’s fair in love and war‘, then why not have Gaza Pier serve two purposes? Aid Palestinians and IDF?
Israel, I noted last year on October 11, 2023, “Questionable levels of infiltration are deemed unacceptable by intelligence and military standards.” Rules of the game changed in this power play?
Yet, “while Israeli intelligence failures related to the 1973 Yom Kippur War are well-known, the CIA’s may be less familiar. An analysis of U.S. intelligence said a report issued on Oct. 4 indicating war was not expected was ‘a conclusion that was to haunt the intelligence community like no other since Pearl Harbor.”
Since May you have been in a ‘battle of ropes’ between counterattacks and negotiations. But operationalizing one can conflict with the other. Proximity to the adversary intensifies and complicates situation because multiple decisions need to be assessed.
Of course, by striking a deal with the U.S. DEVGRU and CIA, you both can ‘kill two birds with one stone.’ How? In the North, Penetrate and revamp HEZBOLLAH communication devices courtesy of Taiwan.
In the South, building a ‘makeshift’ Gaza Pier is ideal to infiltrate and ‘get to’ HAMAS leaders. In May, I questioned, ‘Is the US Defense ‘floating pier’ only for aid or utilized as hidden supply drops?
A special ops unit could execute target with PRECISION in the South. Thanks to cameras supplied in the tunnels which Israel let stand for decades, the Americans can enter Gaza’s buildings via underground.
Once dead target is in place, IDF could bomb away and PM claim ‘victory.’ But discovery of Sinwar’s body is a ‘double edged sword.’ Not only did you find him still fighting, He was NOT hiding behind Palestinians or Hostages.
Americans like holding onto their criminal ‘masterminds’ like Charles Manson. Where’s Bin Laden? Body of Bin Laden was not exchanged in a deal but reportedly buried at sea within 24 hours respecting Islam practice.
But Israel does not appear to practice U.S. chivalry. Seems Sinwar was worth more dead than alive. Shekels reportedly found near Sinwar was a nice touch. But U.S. stinking Dollars are all over this scene.
Expert negotiators say deal had been on the table for months. Question is, Who made ‘money bag’ deal and who’s ordering hits? Medical Experts report Sinwar’s death was by PRECISION gunshot to his head.
Iran, identified the real INFIDEL?
Kenneth Pollack, as to the ‘Ugly Americans’ you write about in The Persian Puzzle, bet you could not imagine how ugly it would get in the Middle East. So Yanks, what took you so long?
Right. Win-Win. Take down H-H leaders. But if Israel is so advanced in technology and intelligence, why ask the Americans for help? Pay your debts to them?
Professor Eyal Winter, in an excellent piece in the Haaretz, “Attrition” points out: “The IDF is strong in technical show-off operations, but it’s quite weak in guerrilla warfare, especially in my territory.”
Hostages and Elections, Coming Full Circle
U.S., speaking of debts, will you again pay Iran in 2025 as you did in 1981 Hostage exchange? Yet, unlike the 1980 race, 2024 rides on Hostages and two Wars.
In my May 3rd paper “Israel at the Realm of Political Decisiveness: Counter Attack – Negotiations” I point out, Israel, we’ve been here before. Americans hostages held by Iran for 444 days were reportedly released in the hours leading to President Ronald Reagan’s inaugural address. Jimmy seemingly and smilingly had no idea.
As Branko Marcetic writes “Ronald Reagan secretly negotiated to keep the Iran hostages captive for an extended period to try to keep President Jimmy Carter from winning reelection.”
Forty-four years later, appears the ‘1980 October Surprise theory’ is being put to the test.
Israel, ironic is it not. A decade after the Munich Massacre in 1972 where hostages were killed, a U.S. President had reportedly once again supplied Iran with weapons via Israel.
Question is, will the new U.S. President strike a deal with Iran? In exchange, what country TODAY will supply them weapons, U.S. and Saudi Arabia? Think nuclear – India, Russia, China, or Korea?
Lebanon’s Minister of Economy and Trade several months ago raised a compelling and now convincing point: Interested players stand to gain.
In today’s conflicts, who stands to gain tomorrow?
President Ronald Reagan’s inaugural speech to the public “We must act today in order to preserve tomorrow” published by the New York Times appears NOW to have already been put into action by U.S. Allies, NATO and Israel.
So, who will play Jimmy’s and Ronnie’s role today and with a smile, Harris or Trump? Can you picture a winning Trump shake hands with Harris or vice versa?
SWOT Analysis ↔ H ↕ H
Israel, before claiming ‘Total Victory’ let’s analyze your Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.
Strengths: Technological & Military advancements and Intelligence penetration. Allies’ financial backing primarily US intelligence communications.
Weakness: Overreliance on tech. October 7th deadly fiasco began months BEFORE Oct 7th when female ‘field observers’ tactical assessments were IGNORED. Leadership failure or by design, resulting in problem of morale. YOU FAILED A NEAR CENTURY LEGACY OF HOLOCAUST SURVIVORS.
Opportunities: Maintain power, level Gaza and contain Lebanon.
Threats – Political inner circle’s agenda trumps the State and its people with hostages dead or alive.
SUMMARY: Unlike the ‘Art of War’ or ‘War and Peace’, there is no Art and Peace in this story. U.S. defends its Middle Eastern Ally, Israel. Iran backs Hamas and Hezbollah. DEAD HEAT.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is this what you call ‘Total Victory’? One need not look far to see how President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been running ‘victory laps’ around NATO only to be kicked to the curb for almost three years. More drones for proxy just means more contract ‘fighting.’
‘Victory Plan’? A SWOT analysis of Russia-Ukraine would only add insult to injury.
But “Opportunity” for Israel is proportionate to Russia’s conquest of land and leader staying in power.
INSIDE JOB? As my family and friends in law enforcement say, ‘this can of worms opens from the inside.’
Prof. Winters correctly points out, “Without internal change, even a total victory is a humiliating.”
Future, WEB of Deadly Spiders?
Let’s put the future of Security and Peace in perspective.
Israel 100% in INsecurity.
Palestine !00% War and No Peace
Gaza 75% Destruction
Lebanon, the ‘Paris of the Middle East’ will shine again!
As a ‘Bull in a China Shop,’ IDF bulldozed building after building. Miri Eisin, former IDF Colonel, we did not hear your response as to 75% destruction or a strategy for future security and peace. IDF plan appears to have no strategy other than an opportunity to destroy your neighbor to the South and North.
Victory is not about manpower or firepower, but of Leadership. ‘Superior at the Decisive Point’ is what Helmuth von Moltke points out, “No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the main enemy forces.”
IDF, if Objective is “Elimination of military arm of terrorist organization” what of its ‘HEAD’? Unlike U.S. Central Intelligence, HAMAS-HEZBOLLAH, are DeCentralized. No ‘start-ups’ here.
In this deadly World Wide WEB where more targets are caught, along its nets will climb more and more and more ‘spiders.’ Yes, but there are many types of spiders.
As Israel and U.S. continue ‘making a killing’ in the power plays of Hostage Deals, Iran feeds the WEB.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power making commands, for the time being. But confuse not a Politician with a King. I remind you, King David you are not.
Future? Fail not again to heed words I made clear in August 2023:
→”Israel’s future to ‘weep for generations’ will likely be on account of ill-advised commands, steering it to face reprisal at the hand of Palestinians and their Alliances.”