WAR, Crystal Clear. “Power is alwayes Generallissimo.”
“When the George W. Bush administration took office in January 2001, it seemed more likely to take a softer line on Iran than a harder one. American oil companies widely favored lifting the sanctions, and the background of many Bush administration officials in the oil industry (the President included) led many to speculate that they might do so unilaterally.”
“By September 11, 2001, Iran policy was officially “still being studied”…it became clear that Iran was not going to be a target of the war on terrorism, at least not at first. Instead, Iran was going to be an ally.”- Kenneth Pollack, The Persian Puzzle: The Conflict Between Iran and America, 2004
Zeroing in, we discover “peace” and “deals” have many values based on space and time specifically topographic significance. It appears we are now “Coming Full Circle” as Pollack’s book Chapter brings to light.
U.S., having made oil deals with Iran just 20 years ago, appears to now be making a counter clockwise circle, making it a target for war. Withdrawing from the JCPOA, sanctions, and air missile strike targeting Major General Qassem Soleimani, the U.S. made the first move.
Israel has made the second move. Alliance with countries bordering the Persian Gulf, Israel and U.S. can be strategically positioned at the southeastern tip of the Kingdom about 600 km from Iran as it sits in close proximity within missile range. Israel no need for costly and dangerous troubleshooting repurposing the F-35 for refueling.
Stealth Bombers and Fighter Jets are the trademark of U.S. military aircraft. Security Analysts forecasts of Lockheed Martin building 4,000 F-35 in 50 years points to Defense concern of the advancements of Russia and China.
Vulnerability of the F-35 or “flying supercomputer” is in its high-tech computing strength – IT CAN BE SHUT DOWN. Key for adversaries is to find its “Achilles’ heel” and gain access to the code and lock it down. Time will tell if Lockheed Martin’s “supercomputer” is impregnatable.
U.S. Press Booth Announcing “Play by Play”
Secretary of State’s words in April readily appear as a preemptive threat and early sign of what was to come, political pacts with new and renewed alliances.
“Iran’s ability to purchase conventional weapon systems starting in October 23 of this year in the absence of action. We’re not going to let that happen. The failures of the Iran nuclear deal are legion. One of them is now upon us.”
Mr. Secretary, actually it appears one of your country’s reported failures are once again upon you. Recall “The United States abandoned a nuclear weapon beneath the ice in northern Greenland following a crash in 1968” as reported by Gordon Corera, BBC News Security Correspondent. It seems abandoning nuclear deals were preceded by dumping nuclear weapons.
In the 1960s, the Soviet Union was the focus of the U.S. For its ally, Israel, the concern was Iran. Now, Russia too has allies. And it appears to be of concern for the Secretary, “It’s now just several months out where China, Russia, other countries from around the world can all sell significant conventional weapons systems to the Iranians in October of this year…We’re going to make sure that come October of this year the Iranians aren’t able to buy conventional weapon that they would be…” Sir, Mr. Secretary, what of buying island nations.
Recall soon after WWII, in its apparent pretense for allying itself with Greenland, U.S. reportedly offered to buy it? No sale. No problem. Secretary of State announced at a News Conference this past 29th of April:
“I am pleased to announce we will reopen our consulate in Nuuk, Greenland this summer for the first time since 1953. It’s reopening will…strengthen our partnership with are Arctic allies…as non- arctic states look to exploit the region for their own interests…” Diplomatic ties or what the U.S. and Israel term, “peace deals.”
Speaking of those who “look to exploit the region for their own interests” recall the U.S. “Top- Secret US Military Base? Kate Lunau of Vice may remind you as she notes in her 09 March 2019 paper, “A Top-Secret US Military Base Will Melt Out of the Greenland Ice Sheet.” Mr. Secretary, I see the sudden urgency to “reopen [y]our consulate… this summer.” Yes, the ice caps are melting.
Naturally, weapons awaken from their frozen state. Northern Atlantic glaciers continue to surrender to the elements melting away as those lying bare in the earth and desert sands, machines lost and hidden by man.
A frozen land whose misnomer in its green name made it an ideal location to build a nuclear powered base, the decades long reported Thule Air Base. I imagine that in time, Greenland as its counterpart, Iceland, will melt away all its U.S. buried secrets.
Swift diplomatic engagements appear to be “business as usual” on one part but serve multiple interests. Commerce, trade, and of course attending to some defense matters.
Consider that “Camp Century isn’t the only US military installation abroad that’s increasingly threatened by climate change. A Pentagon report from earlier this year, for example, noted that half of all US bases worldwide could be at risk.” Did the military think the weapons would never resurface? Speaking of “never” brings to mind the past.
Israel, having a homeland appears to have augmented your resilience, so much so you’ve opened wider your lines of communication with Germany, a mere 75 years since the killing of Jews was brought to an end.
Golda Meir, the former Israeli Prime Minister known for her powerful bold persona may not have envisioned such a bold step. “I’ve never been able to set foot in Germany. I go to Austria and can’t bring myself to enter Germany…For us Jews, relations with Germany are such a conflict between mind and heart…” Today, it appears such conflicts have been trumped by special interests.
However, some would argue the “engagements” between Israel’s current prime minister and Germany have nothing to do with the deadly past, and absolutely nothing to do with boldness, but that of political maneuvering in the current geopolitical scheme orchestrated by Israel’s closest ally, the U.S.
WAR Blueprint: Military Base Repositioning
‘When the tyrant has disposed of foreign enemies by conquest or treaty, and there is nothing more to fear from them, then he is always stirring up some war or other, in order that the people may require a leader.’ – Plato
Alleged “imminent threat” from Iran was not clear and present. U.S. claims of General Soleimani “actively” planning an attack on Americans are reminiscent of Saddam Hussein possessing WMDs. Objective? Present unsubstantiated “intelligence” to Allies selling the idea of war.
Iran, old enemy, do you too see the irony and perhaps an opportunity? As I noted in my 2016 paper, “Islamic Republic of Iran Power and Strategy: Maneuvering Global Geopolitics and Capitalizing on Scientific Opportunities In Peacetime,” the field of science is a broad.
West to the East, the focus lies on a microscopic organism leveling economies. Still, there are elements at the atomic level that can bring man to his knees, immobilize him, or end him. World Pendulum has stopped. Metropolises are revealing an earth standing still and bare. Exposed, nations lay as defenseless fortresses, weak to the elements, to man and machine.
Satellites orbiting around earth catch glimpses across continents where nation leaders are taking their position. Observed targets are mapped out in formation of a tripartite: China, Russia, and Iran.
Russia and China → U.S. appears to be strategically repositioning itself on its bases on the frosty blue seas near the Arctic, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Caspian Sea, Yellow Sea, and Sea of Japan.
Iran → Israel and its new “peace deals” allies can facilitate placing foot soldiers and F-35 fighters in Bahrain and U.A.E. alongside the Persian Gulf, in close proximity at 600 km.
SDCs wing points to Primum Movens:
SpaceTime has been good to Russia as its advanced from supersonic interceptors to hypersonic aircraft and weapons. “На боевое дежурство заступил первый полк с “Авангардами”
U.S. ground forces remain virtually in place but for a slight repositioning of its soldiers in Iraq and Germany to unspecified locations. France appears to have taken interest in this same space. Russia, you may wish to take heed of France’s past military leader, “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake” as Napoleon Bonaparte so astutely learned from his failed campaigns.
Russia commands the Seas of the Arctic as its ground forces continue its steadfast position at the northern base of the Middle East in Syria (South of Turkey and North of Israel). Iran and China have taken to the Seas.
The “Seven Stans”: Pakistan, Afghanistan Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are to the North and East of Iran.
The “5 Eyes” surveillance capability continues to be extended from 5, 5+3, 9, 14, XX, including collaborators. Japan has reportedly been invited to join. The “5 Stans” (Pakistan, Afghanistan Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan) are in an ideal location to report aerial and ground surveillance of India, Iran, Russia, China and key players in its parameters, Korea and Japan.
Japan builds on power and precision. China builds on strength and sustainability. Japan’s command is to be in new hands. Sensei, imagine what you could accomplish by future alliances.
U.S. recognized early on the geostrategic importance of both Afghanistan and Pakistan in its military operations in the Middle East. It is not coincidental these two countries, including Turkmenistan, border the Islamic Republic of Iran. The “Stans” also provide a buffer zone between India and Iran.
Saudi Arabia and Israel have long relied on its U.S. ally for weaponry. Still, neither has singlehandedly nor in unison dared challenge Iran. IAEA, Rafael Grossi, Director General, whose self-proclaimed “job is to be the clear watchdog” offered his assessment? “The reality is…the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have very limited nuclear activity.”
If attacked, Iran would be in close proximity and be surrounded by U.S. ground soldiers in Pakistan, Afghanistan Turkmenistan, and Iraq. Bahrain, South of Iraq and North of UAE, and alongside Saudi Arabia can facilitate “overfly rights.” But will UAE and Bahrain soldiers be as successful as their reported select teams’ top athletes competing in the France’s bike tour?
Near the UAE sit the long disputed Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunbs in the Persian Gulf. Iran and the Emirate of Ras al-Khaimah each hold claim to their right of ownership. Who will take possession, how and when?
Finally, the West’s actions are predictable. Arming old and new allies with weaponry with ultimate goal of targeting Iran may backfire as past conflicts and wars have proven. Key is to be ready at the “changing of the guard.”
Israel, Ready to Walk the War Path U.S. Paved?
Israel’s IDF and Mossad’s visits to selected Middle East countries seem focused on ground forces and plans to strategically situate their air crafts and arsenal in close proximity to Iran.
U.S. Pentagon visits to Israel may have included engaging with Isaac Ben Israel, retired IDF Major General. The General understands ground attack and flexibility, “When people are shooting at you, it changes you for life. You learn that you don’t stick strictly to what you were told to do.”
Important to note that Isaac Ben Israel, referred to as “the father of Israel’s cybersecurity business” literally wrote the book, “Cybersecurity in Israel.” The General not only has a command of physical space but cyberspace.
Israel is quick to alert the IAEA that “Iran is closer to developing a nuclear weapon now than in the beginning.” As the IAEA reportedly provides “neutral technological assessments,” Israel overlooks that the IAEA was “Kicked out from DPRK in 2009.”
Is Israel mistaken in overlooking North Korea? U.S., recall surprise attacks came from both the Middle East and Asia. Personal motives come second to the instinct for survival when the enemy advances.
Clinton Gardner, U.S. Army Lieutenant and WWII Veteran clarified the notion that the U.S. entered the war because of what was happening to the Jews. Apparently the decision to go to war was primarily out of self-interest. Seeing Germany’ invasion across Europe, the U.S. feared they would be next.
Middle East pacts coming in the aftermath of Iranian sanctions and the assassination of their General may too be out of self-interest and fear of Iran. Kenneth Pollack, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute think tank in Washington and longtime Iran expert asks, “What happens when the Iranians actually mount a serious attack of any kind against US military forces?” Yes, Pollack, “That’s how we get ourselves into a really big war.”
General Joseph Votel (Ret.), former Central Command (CENTCOM) may disagree as he has argued that “Iran is clear where our red lines are.” Sir, but that’s what the U.S. said about Syria. Still, one can clearly find blood on either side of these “red lines” as in the ocean waters of past wars.
Ocean in the North Atlantic drew witness and washed ashore soldiers in Europe from American vessels in past World Wars. The Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf have in more recent times bore witness to Wars masked as conflicts. Brutal death is not the result of soldier’s conflicting values but that of leaders’ decisive actions.
The American people are said to be soft. But do not confuse a civilian with a soldier. There is a reason why “The Great War” was great. Amongst the first mass conscripted army were hardened soldiers. So great fighters were these Americans that France in dire need of soldiers turned to the U.S.
Regrettably, the Germans made a costly error in judgment. Being “fed the line that Americans can’t fight”, they endured a grave loss. No better witness of the ravenous determination of Americas’ fighting men, were the French, as a letter found on a dead French soldier reportedly stated, “These Americans are insane, they want to kill everything.”
The “Great War” may have seen the last of these great fighters. Needless wars masked as conflicts required mass bodies at the frontlines. Devoid of fighting spirit and training as their American predecessors, fewer allied soldiers stood a chance against Germany in WWII. According to Rick Atkinson, Pulitzer Prize recipient and author of “The Guns at Last Light,” the “Soviets did most of the killing and dying.” Soviets killed 9 of 10 German soldiers vs one by U.K. and U.S combined.
Israeli-Palestinian conflicts and wars may be no different in the odds they face on the ground. Rules of Engagement changed giving Israel air advantage. Foot soldiers have in part been replaced by modern aircraft and weapons. But the genesis of these technological advancements goes back decades.
In 1973, Oriana Fallaci, Italian journalist conducted several notable interviews with world leaders. In an interview with Yasir Arafat, Fallaci asked, “Are you capable of respecting your enemies?” Arafat replied, “As fighters, and even as strategists…sometimes, yes.”
Fallaci: “Part of the game of war. They’ve also won because they’re brave soldiers.”
Arafat: “No! No! No! No they’re not! In hand-to-hand combat, face to face, they’re not even soldiers. It’s always the same story with the Israelis. They’re good at attacking with planes because they know we have no planes, with tanks because they know we have no tanks…”
American Colonels and Generals understand full well the unfair odds and the price of war:
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, the “warrior ethos” is destroyed “when you go out and kill people and you’re totally invulnerable.” Col. Wilkerson adds, “I think the drone business, the distance imposed amplifies this 100 fold.” Online gaming utilizing “young pilots…recruited at video game fairs” has facilitated the CIA drone war attacks.
General W.T. Sherman notes, “There is many a boy here today who looks on war as all glory, but, boys, it is all hell.” Yet, there appeared to be somewhat of an equal playing field in past where you faced your enemy up close and personal. Not today. And this may be just as well as few admitted into West Point are as qualified as in the past.
Secretary of Defense, Is Your Game Plan Offensive or Defensive?
Few U.S. Secretary of Defense can be compared to the once revered Robert McNamara. As a fellow American who served his country and Presidents, Joseph A. Califano, Jr. worked with McNamara. In Califano’s book Inside, he notes in the chapter, “A Whiz Kid in McNamara’s Pentagon” that “As I came to know McNamara and understand his management style, I realized that he did not want anyone in the Defense Department to beat him at anything.”
Competition in defense is strikingly similar to sports, specifically football. A comparison of football’s key players, Head Coach, Offense/Defense Coordinator, and Quarterback could be made to the President, General, and Defense Secretary. And what of the Secretary of State? Announcers sit in the Press Booth giving a “play by play.”
Defense Secretary Esper, the way I see it, much can be learned from McNamara’s Offense on Vietnam. Fumble after fumble leading to the Quarterback being intercepted resulted in no touch downs.
Sir, on the Defense, a team needs to not only have “lean, mean, killing machines” but be provided a successful game plan. Being merely inspired by the “next generation” is not sufficient. These men and women need to deliver on the field if the key objective is a turn over.
No doubt McNamara may have made a tough quarterback and businessman. U.S. Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper, your moves are quite smooth as you shift from the Pentagon to Politics to Business. I’m still enjoying the replays before I make my final assessment. Sir, may I suggest you steer clear from the political fog.
Dr. Esper is reported to have “served concurrently as the Executive Vice President for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Global Intellectual Property Center and as Vice President for Europe and Eurasian Affairs from 2008-2010. Before being nominated as the Secretary of the Army in 2017, Dr. Esper was the Vice President for Government Relations at the Raytheon Company.
The Business of War
Defense Secretary Mark Esper, Sir, with all due respect, I do not concur that “Nobody a year ago would have predicted we’d be facing a global pandemic that has shut down the economies of the world…” What of scientists or economists who have written for decades of imminent wars and pandemics? “The Coming China Wars, Where They Will Be Fought and How They Can Be Won” stands as a solid example.
Financial profit from the business of war appears to be bequeathed to those with a “crystal ball” who make it their business to “predict.” You see such information was not only clear and in plain sight, but critical to hedge fund players. No different than that provided by the IAEA “clear watchdog” as he states, “We provide neutral technological assessment allowing powers to come to a decision.”
Sir, players thrive in their moves to fund hedges in dark silos as governments fund wars. As the market reacts to the short term, hedge funds plan for the long term. Question is, will their next strategy be event-driven or directional or both? An agenda to “break down the silos” as you noted seems immaterial once the information is accessed and war is crystal clear.
The businessman Elon Musk seems to share some of my ideas on business. Bloomberg Businessweek (May 2011) notes Musk’s words:
“Business is like a multidimensional probabilistic chessboard. The rules aren’t set, and the same moves don’t always make you win. A lot of people can be really good in a set-piece battle; my biggest differentiating skill is I can invent new pieces.”
Elon, let me enlighten you: Iran has for centuries reinvented the pieces they created. Historians and Intelligence Officers agree that “The Persian Empire was a superpower like nothing the world had ever seen.” However, unlike the West, “All Iranians know that history well.” Isaac Ben Israel reminds us that “Balance is usually based on experience. You cannot copy a model when you are inventing a system.”
From SDCs vantage point, in time Iran will be “coming full circle” once again as Kenneth M. Pollack clearly points out. I imagine the Empire will cease to be a “Persian Puzzle.” Checkmate” stands for “The King is Frozen.” Yes, but which King?
Dealmakers and businessmen or so called inventors, observe the window of opportunity is swiftly closing if the goal is to launch war. Defense and Aerospace large manufacturers and their contractors appear to have stood ready since early 2016.
Iranian sanctions, military strikes and alliances are unsustainable at best and disastrous to economies if the goal is war, but profitable for the business of war. Nations’ economic and current state of affairs is likely to advance in the wrong direction leaving civilians and dead soldiers in its path. And during this advancement, enemies patiently await.
November 3rd or soon after will determine the U.S. President’s reelection or a remainder of 78 days as a “lame duck president.” But don’t be fooled by the illusion of time. In the “blink of an eye,” your leader will …
‘When the tyrant has disposed of foreign enemies by conquest or treaty, and there is nothing more to fear from them, then he is always stirring up some war or other, in order that the people may require a leader.’ – Plato
Illusions of Peace
Looking behind the veil of peace, I found key relevant historical paradoxes that point to three men: Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and Alfred Noble. Einstein and Oppenheimer’s discoveries and designs led to the development of the Atomic Bomb.
Alfred Noble’s estate is said to have promoted the Noble Prize. Yet, what is overlooked is that amongst the many businessman and inventor’s reported undertakings, ammunition was one.
U.S. government turned these men’s discoveries into “War Machines.” Still, the West looked to the East for Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs)?
Peace for the living is an elusive word. Yet, crystal clear for the dead as they “rest in peace.” Reading Immanuel Kant’s “To Eternal Peace” I’ve deduced a few things:
Man clearly is in a conundrum. It is man’s own nature that is problematical when facing his own kind. As man ultimately aims for peace, he is at the same time using war as a strategy to get there. Kant’s observation of this movement has been noted many times by authors, such as Orwell, that point to the slogans of “War is Peace” and Peace is War.”
Dr. Esper, what slogan will man post tomorrow? Esper’s statement two months ago, “Who knows what is going to happen tomorrow” is not as crystal clear as is the power in the actions of Generals who command war.
Sir, War is not a game. It is your job to know. Counterattacks have been in place for decades. Twists of fate and irony have sat Russia and China in command and control positions. One has superseded the U.S. harnessing high hypersonic speed. The other stands to profit by funding U.S. Defense to build the new F-35 “supercomputers.”
Reportedly “three-fourth of the pilots have not yet been born” that are to fly F-35s. Still, Esper is inspired by those present at a recent graduation ceremony, the “next generation of soldiers, sailors, and marines…willing to… sacrifice themselves… in defense of an idea, of ideals…”
Sir, but they remain ideas and ideals without a General who can lead them into victory in a just war. A Commander who understands the true meaning of “Strength and Honor.”
Sir, “Power is alwayes Generallissimo.”
James N. Mattis, Commanding General, “During his more than four decades in uniform… commanded Marines at all levels…commanded U.S. Joint Forces Command, NATO’s Supreme Allied Command for Transformation, and U.S. Central Command…he directed military operations of more than 200,000 soldiers, sailors, airmen, Coast Guardsmen, Marines and allied forces across the Middle East.”
“For the Power by which the people are to be defended, consisteth in
their Armies; and the strength of an Army, in the union of their
strength under one Command; which Command the Soveraign Instituted,
therefore hath; because the command of the Militia, without other
Institution, maketh him that hath it Soveraign. And therefore
whosoever is made Generall of an Army, he that hath the Soveraign
Power is alwayes Generallissimo.” –1651
LEVIATHAN
By Thomas Hobbes of Malmesbury.
Paris APRILL 15/25 1651.