World After the Iran Nuclear Deal

“If one Prophet deceive another, what certainty is there of knowing the will of God, by other way than that of Reason?”- Thomas Hobbes

At about the age of five, climbing “my tree” had been what I saw as my life-long challenge, each time hoping to reach the top. Stretching as far as I could reach for the branch that would pull me closer, but no not today.

Walking in my neighborhood, I came across the stumps of what were once beautiful fruit trees.  Seeing its circles, I later learned these were its year rings. Saddened by what I thought was a short life I learned to value my beautiful fruit tree. Realizing that a tree’s life is not endless, I took a more heartened approach in pushing myself to reach the top.

Victory came! Reaching the top, my heart beating, I recall saying, today I reached the top at the age of six. Soon after, my parents decided to move. That’s when I learned that timing matters. As to the tree, I learned that life is short. I was glad to climb it before it was cut down and became a stump.

Learning that stumps were overlooked and not disturbed, I found a perfect hiding place for my secret toys.

Recent transformations in the West and East appear to have been in the works in the past decade. Yet, they have come to light in the last three years with trade and economic accords. But while these deals are made in the light of day, some operations and arms deals are done in the shadows; especially those connected to nuclear reactor plant attacks.

Israel, like in Syria, will your next operation find that “sweet spot” in Iran? Not sure if they have Orchards, so look inside the box.

Iran, from a satellite distance all nuclear reactor power plants look like tree stumps. Will you too hide your secret toys under them ۝

In a July 2015 paper “The West and the Middle East After the Iran Nuclear Deal,” Riccardo Alcaro highlights “the effects of the deal on Iran’s foreign policy, elements of a strategy to engage Iran: Iraq and Syria, [and] elements of a strategy to engage Iran: the Gulf.”

Alcaro notes, ““The successful conclusion of the 18-month long nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States plus Germany and the European Union) has stirred a lively debate.” However, I imagine the current P4+1 talks will be legendary; not for their originality, as “Knights of the Roundtable” did not set the model for Emperors, Czars, Kings, and Leaders.

Alcaro’s words seem rightfully ambitious, and given the times, some would have agreed.

“A pan-Gulf forum could address, in the beginning, lower profile issues, including trade, movement of people, environmental protection, the fight against organized crime, and the development of common infrastructure projects. Critically, however, it would also provide a platform for handling high politics issues cooperatively… set parameters for the peaceful resolution of disputes in the Gulf waters… and launch negotiations over a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone in the Gulf.”

I find that from old blocs and changes of internal and external players, a new bloc arose creating a formidable axis. And while appearance of cooperation is critical for some, clandestine operations are key for others. The wheels were in motion with accelerating force:

۞ Paradigm has shifted 180 degrees: Present actors, US (non-isolationist), Israel (non-isolationist) and Iran (hard liners) are a striking contrast to previous US (isolationist), Israel (hardliner), and Iran (non-Isolationist)

۞ Rise in bioweapons and cyber warfare

In another world, Alcaro’s proposal may have been realized, “The forum, or dialogue, would ultimately serve the purpose of creating a balance of interests between the region’s main rivals, Iran and Saudi Arabia, guaranteed by US power and supported by EU countries and, ideally, the Security Council.”

Yet, powers beyond the P5+1 control appear to be giving way to uncertainty and long-term instability and “powerful external states [cannot] persuade local countries to overcome their self-destructive zero-sum mentality.” The West is understanding what real instability looks like.

Fall of US buildings and bridges turned mockery of their infrastructure to condemnation where leaders cannot place the blame of the death of their people on being attacked by a foreign adversary.

Bioweapons combined with Globalization forced the World into a pendulum swing so brutal it’s left a lasting mark. Gone are the beautiful trees of the Vienna Victory days. Welcome to our new “modus vivendi.”